Benfica vs Real Madrid

17 February - 20:00

Benfica

Real Madrid

Recommended tip Draw

1: 3.70 X: 3.75 2: 1.88

1: 3.60 X: 3.80 2: 1.85

1: 3.70 X: 3.90 2: 1.85

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There’s a proper European night waiting at Estadio da Luz as Benfica welcome Real Madrid for the first leg of this Champions League playoff tie on Tuesday, 17 February 2026. Stakes don’t come much higher — a place in the last 16 is up for grabs and both sides will be keen to take the initiative before the return leg.

Form and recent meetings have added spice to the bill. Benfica arrive on a five-game unbeaten run at home, while Real Madrid have been largely ruthless in recent weeks. Expect passion, pride and a few talking points: cards, momentum swings and the memory of last month’s 4-2 encounter still fresh in the minds of both sets of supporters.

For those looking for quick Tips and a pointer on the market, our hot tip from the preview is Over 1.5 Benfica goals after they hit four in Lisbon the last time these teams met. If you’re shopping the markets, check out the selection on football betting sites and weigh up the odds before you back anything.

There’s merit to backing goals and cards here — this fixture has proved fruitful on both counts recently — so expect an open, combative night with plenty to discuss come full-time.

Odds and Predictions

The bookies have tacked the favourites to the visitors: pre-match odds list Real Madrid at 9/10 (1.90), Benfica at 13/5 (3.60) and the draw at 3/1 (4.00). Those numbers translate to implied win probabilities of roughly 52.6% for Real Madrid, 27.8% for Benfica and 25% for a stalemate.

What do those odds tell us? The market has clearly trusted the visitors’ wider form, but the narrow margins suggest this is far from a foregone conclusion. With Benfica’s home resilience and the recent 4-2 result still in the picture, there’s value in thinking double — a match-winner market is tight, so goals and cards markets could be the smarter play.

We’re siding with a lively draw. Our correct score prediction is Benfica 2-2 Real Madrid, a result that fits the narrative of both teams scoring freely and neither willing to sit back. The prediction blends the outright odds with the head-to-head evidence and the teams’ recent scoring records.

Don’t forget the cards angle — both sides have seen plenty of disciplinary action in recent games, and markets such as over 4.5 total cards, priced at around 13/10 (2.30) in the preview, look tempting given the recent trends.

Comparison and Statistics

The head-to-head (H2H) history between these clubs has an immediate headline: Benfica beat Real Madrid 4-2 at the same ground last month, a game that finished with nine men on the pitch. That meeting alone injects caution into the visitors’ approach and gives the hosts confidence that this tie can be troubled.

Key stats from the preview back up the narrative: Benfica’s last five matches all went above the 4.5-card threshold, and five of Real Madrid’s last six contests produced at least 11 cards. Add the fact Real Madrid have opened the scoring in seven consecutive matches and you have a recipe for early intensity.

Form tables paint a split picture. Real Madrid have won six of their last seven across competitions, whereas Benfica rallied after a poor start to finish the league phase by clinching the final playoff spot. Recent results show Real Madrid cruising to a 4-1 win last weekend while Benfica scraped a 2-1 away win to keep momentum alive.

Put simply: Madrid boast consistent winning form and a decent goals return, but Benfica have home steel and the mental edge from the recent victory. That balance is why our predictions lean toward a competitive draw rather than a clear away triumph.

Expected Line-ups

Both sides have named predicted XIs in the build-up to this tie. Benfica will be missing a number of players through injury, but the line-up supplied in the preview offers a clear look at their likely setup: Trubin in goal, a back four of Dahl, Otamendi, T. Araujo and Dedic, with Barreiro, Aursnes and Prestianni in midfield and Silva, Schjelderup & Pavlidis leading the line.

Benfica’s injury list is lengthy — Alexander Bah remains out with a long-term cruciate injury while Nuno Felix, Richard Rios, Samuel Soares, Joao Veloso and Henrique Araujo are also absent. Those absentees will force the hosts into selection choices that could alter how adventurous they are in possession.

Real Madrid’s predicted XI reads: Courtois in goal, Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen and Carreras across the back, Valverde, Tchouameni and Camavinga in the engine room, with Guler, Vinicius Jr and Mbappe expected to provide the attack. However, Militao and Jude Bellingham are confirmed absentees with hamstring problems and two players — Raul Asencio and Rodrygo Goes — are suspended after sending-offs in the final league round.

Those selection issues matter. Benfica’s makeshift defence has shown it can score and be vulnerable in equal measure; Madrid, missing key personnel, might not have the midfield control they usually enjoy. Expect tactical tweaks and personnel substitutions to be decisive as the match unfolds.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This tie has implications beyond a single two-legged clash. For Benfica, progression would confirm a strong recovery and consolidate the morale-boosting turnaround that saw them climb back into the playoff spot. It would be a statement that their season is moving in the right direction despite earlier setbacks.

For Real Madrid, failing to progress would be a significant setback given their recent domestic form. A tie or loss here would raise questions about squad depth and how well they can cope with injuries and suspensions during the business end of the season.

Looking at the wider campaign, a win for either side provides momentum for domestic competitions and the invaluable financial and prestige rewards of Champions League progression. A draw, by contrast, keeps the tie alive and promises a dramatic return leg where everything will be on the line.

Ultimately our view is pragmatic: this fixture will be close, high-scoring and febrile. Back the goals and consider the cards market as a complementary play; the outright market favours Real Madrid on the numbers, but our predictions tip a 2-2 draw and a night to savour for neutrals.

Match Snapshot

Correct score prediction: Benfica 2-2 Real Madrid
Hot tip from preview: Over 1.5 Benfica goals
Pre-game odds: HOME 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8% | DRAW 3/1 (4.00) – 25% | AWAY 9/10 (1.90) – 52.6%

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”