Olympiacos vs Real Madrid - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki 26 November - 20:00

Olympiacos Piraeus

Real Madrid

Recommended tip Win for Real Madrid

1: 4.65 X: 4.40 2: 1.62

1: 4.60 X: 4.50 2: 1.60

1: 4.33 X: 4.50 2: 1.65

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There’s a proper European night lined up as Olympiacos welcome Real Madrid to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium on Wednesday, 26 November 2025. It’s the kind of fixture that gets the old pulse racing — David vs Goliath on paper, but a stadium that can make the minnows feel like giants. Fans will be hoping the atmosphere lifts the home side while neutrals expect a tactical chess match with goals.

Form tells a mixed tale. Olympiacos arrive unbeaten in six across all competitions and look dangerous at home, whereas Real Madrid’s recent stutter — three matches without a win — has put a bit of a question mark over them. That recent run adds spice to the tie and turns every odds line into a talking point among punters and pundits alike. If you like to shop around for value, remember to check the markets before kick-off and compare the best offers at the top football betting sites.

There’s history, pride and a quarter-final-sized ego on the line for both clubs. For Olympiacos it’s about proving they can beat the big boys at Karaiskakis; for Real Madrid it’s about showing why they remain the benchmark in Europe. Expect passion, niggle and moments of individual brilliance to decide this one.

Odds and Predictions

The bookmakers have been blunt: Real Madrid are the clear favourites. Current pre-game odds put Madrid around 4/9 (1.44), the draw at roughly 9/2 (5.50) and the hosts priced up at 5/1 (6.00). Those numbers translate to a roughly 69% win probability for Los Blancos on paper — a big number given Olympiacos’ domestic form.

But odds aren’t prophecy. They reflect market sentiment and liability. Olympiacos scoring first in six consecutive matches is the sort of stat that shifts markets and gives value to first-goal or HT/FT specials. Our predictions lean towards Madrid to win, but not without conceding; a 1-3 correct score looks neat and in keeping with both sides’ tendencies. Don’t forget to mix match-winner bets with goal markets — BTTS is an appealing angle given recent results.

For anyone after a cheeky tip, backing Olympiacos to score first makes a lot of sense — they’ve started quickly in recent games and a fast opener could wreck Madrid’s rhythm. Still, for a straight match result our tip is a Win for Real Madrid: quality, experience and depth should tell in the latter stages of the match.

Comparison and Statistics

Head to head (H2H) history between these sides is thin on the ground; the last meeting was way back in November 2007. Across eight competitive meetings stretching back to 1997, Real Madrid have the edge with a 4-3-1 record. That lack of recent H2H meetings makes the tactical duel even more intriguing — we’re not revisiting recent baggage so much as drafting fresh narratives.

Looking at current form, Olympiacos boast five wins and a draw in their last six across competitions, with four of their last five matches clearing the 2.5-goal line. Madrid have been quieter, with one win in four Champions League games this season but still accumulating nine points from a possible 12 earlier in the campaign. Real’s recent blank games (two fixtures without scoring) are worth noting when sizing up odds and predictions for goal markets.

Discipline and cards could be a factor: three of Real Madrid’s last five fixtures saw five or more cards brandished. If the ref lets the game get tugged and niggled, injuries and suspensions could tilt the match. All told, a high-scoring affair with goals at both ends is a textbook expectation — hence the attractiveness of BTTS and over 2.5 goals markets for bettors.

Key statistics to bear in mind:

Olympiacos: six-match unbeaten run across all competitions.
Four of Olympiacos’ last five matches went over 2.5 goals.
Real Madrid: three of last five games produced five-plus cards.

Expected Line-ups

Jose Luis Mendilibar has a near-clean bill of health to pick from, so don’t expect radical changes from the XI that dismantled Atromitos 3-0. Mendilibar loves a direct, pressing style and will likely trust Ayoub El Kaabi to lead the line, supported by lively wide play and a creative attacking midfield.

Probable Olympiacos XI: Tzolakis (GK), Rodinei, Retsos, Pirola, Ortega, Garcia, Mouzakitis, Martins, Chiquinho, Podence, El Kaabi. Expect a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 shape depending on whether Mendilibar wants extra midfield bite to disrupt Madrid’s tempo.

Real Madrid arrive battered by knocks. Long-term absentees could include the likes of Dani Carvajal, Rudiger, Tchouameni and Alaba, which forces adjustments. Xabi Alonso will balance rotation with experience: Vinicius Jr. and Bellingham are near-certainties when fit and will be asked to provide the spark.

Probable Real Madrid XI: Courtois (GK), Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Asencio, Carreras, Valverde, Camavinga, Guler, Bellingham, Vinicius, Mbappe. Expect subtle tactical tweaks from Alonso to protect vulnerable flanks and overload midfield pockets.

How Will the Season Pan Out?

This match is a microcosm of each club’s wider season. For Olympiacos, a result here would be seismic — it would lift their morale and give Mendilibar genuine negotiating power in the group. A win or a strong showing could galvanise their domestic push as well, keeping momentum high in the title chase.

For Real Madrid, this is about consolidating their reputation and avoiding a mini-crisis. A win keeps qualification comfortable and sends a message to rivals that Madrid’s experience still counts in the knockout race. Even if they drop points, their squad depth should see them through to the last 16 — but the margin for error narrows with each stumble.

European campaigns are long, and a result here could shape group dynamics. Madrid winning more comfortably would leave Olympiacos scrambling for points in away fixtures; conversely, a home upset would blow the group wide open. Either way, this tie has consequences beyond 90 minutes and is one to watch for punters and neutrals alike.

Final word: take the odds seriously but respect the theatre. Our predictions favour a calculated Real Madrid victory, but expect entertainment — this is Champions League football after all, and Karaiskakis does strange things to visiting teams.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”