Arsenal vs Tottenham - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Emirates Stadium 23 November - 16:30

Arsenal

Tottenham

Recommended tip Win for Arsenal

1: 1.50 X: 4.20 2: 6.40

1: 1.44 X: 4.20 2: 7.50

1: 1.50 X: 4.20 2: 7.00

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There’s nothing like a North London derby to get the pulse racing and, come Sunday, Arsenal will be looking to send the fans home in a frenzy at Emirates Stadium. The Gunners welcome Tottenham for the first big local showdown of the season, and with the title race already tightening up, this fixture suddenly matters in a way it rarely does in November. Expect noise, passion and a fair bit of tactical chess from both benches.

Form and bragging rights are on the line — Arsenal’s defensive slate has been immaculate of late, while Tottenham are scrambling to get key players fit. The injuries and the momentum make this more than a derby; it’s a statement match. For those shopping around the markets, our round of Tips and Predictions sits alongside the best insights on the site — you can also check our football betting sites page for more context.

In short: Arsenal are heavy favourites and rightly so, but derbies are derbies. Expect bite, structure and, if the Gunners keep their house in order, a result that nudges them back into title contention.

Odds and Predictions

The market has already made its mind up — Ladbrokes lists the pre-game odds as:

HOME: 2/5 (1.40) – 71.4%
DRAW: 18/5 (4.60) – 21.7%
AWAY: 7/1 (8.00) – 12.5%

Those odds reflect Arsenal’s blinding home form and Spurs’ patchy run. When you see figures like 2/5 you’re looking at a side the bookies rate as overwhelming favourites; the implied probability says Arsenal should win comfortably. That doesn’t mean it will be a stroll, but it’s a strong market signal.

As a pundit, I’ll be bold: the hot tip is a win for Arsenal — and not just any win. Backing Arsenal to win to nil looks tempting given recent defensive returns. The predictions here lean on structure: if Arsenal keep their backline organised, Tottenham’s attack, missing key creative elements, will struggle to unlock chances at the Emirates.

For punters who like to split stakes, consider a conservative match-winner and a small wager on a 2-0 correct score. The odds and form suggest low-scoring outcomes, so both clean-sheet and under-three goals markets carry value.

Comparison and Statistics

North London H2H has tilted in Arsenal’s favour recently. The head to head since the last few campaigns has seen Arsenal unbeaten in five straight league derbies (four wins, one draw). That kind of dominance saps confidence from the visiting side and boosts the home crowd — margins matter in these contests.

Digging into the form tables, Arsenal have kept clean sheets in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions. Their home record this season is particularly impressive — five straight home wins to nil in all competitions — which explains the market’s skew. Tottenham, by contrast, have been inconsistent; they’ve won just one of their last four in all competitions and have struggled to manufacture high-quality chances against well-organised defences.

Goal metrics back this up. Arsenal concede very little and pepper teams with expected-goals from wide and central midfield actions. Tottenham’s xG has been patchy without Maddison and Kulusevski, and their cutting edge has been dulled. Expect a tight game with fewer clear-cut chances — perfectly summed up by the odds favouring a low-scoring encounter.

Expected Line-ups

Arsenal’s backline will be under the microscope with a big name missing. Gabriel is out with a hamstring problem and Ricardo Calafiori is doubtful after a hip complaint. Martin Ødegaard and Kai Havertz are also absent. The likely XI reads as a tactical, defensively-minded selection designed to keep Spurs at bay.

Predicted Arsenal XI: Raya (GK), Timber, Saliba, Mosquera, Hincapié, Zubimendi, Eze, Rice, Saka, Trossard, Merino.

Cristhian Mosquera has done well when called upon and will be the focal point of Arsenal’s defensive talk — the youngster must handle pressure and big-game moments. The midfield pivot of Rice and Zubimendi should provide the engine, while Saka and Trossard carry the creative thrust from wide areas.

Tottenham arrive with a hampered squad and a few late fitness tests. Thomas Frank will be hopeful of getting Randal Kolo Muani on the pitch, albeit in a protective mask if cleared. Four players are confirmed out: Dejan Kulusevski, James Maddison, Dominic Solanke and Yves Bissouma, which hurts Spurs’ balance and creativity.

Predicted Tottenham XI: Vicario (GK), Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Spence, Sarr, Palhinha, Kudus, Simons, Odobert, Richarlison.

Set-up-wise, Tottenham are likely to try for quick transitions and aerial work through Richarlison, but the absence of Maddison and Kulusevski means service will be limited. Expect Spurs to sit a little deeper and counter; Arsenal must be wary of rapid breaks and set pieces.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This match isn’t just three points — it can be a momentum-rioter. A convincing win for Arsenal would tighten the title race and hand them a psychological edge over City and their other challengers. The defensive solidity on display could be the difference between a title push and a season of near-misses.

For Tottenham, losing here does not doom the season but it compounds their issues. Consistency in the next run of fixtures will be crucial if they’re to salvage a top-four challenge. The lack of creative personnel and the squad rotation required through injuries will test Frank’s adaptability.

Looking further ahead, Arsenal’s template — defend tightly, transition quickly, get quality from the wings — is a realistic blueprint for sustained success. If their injury list clears, they’ll be right in the hunt. Spurs, meanwhile, must find goals from unexpected quarters or risk slipping down the table as the heavyweights pull away.

Final verdict: stick with the market, but back it with logic — a win for Arsenal (to nil) is the sensible play. The H2H form, defensive stats and current odds all point to a controlled Gunners victory in what promises to be a bruising, low-scoring affair.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”