Burnley vs Brentford - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Turf Moor 28 February - 15:00

Burnley

Brentford

Recommended tip Win for Brentford

1: 4.65 X: 3.75 2: 1.70

1: 4.40 X: 3.70 2: 1.75

1: 4.50 X: 3.90 2: 1.73

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There’s a proper mid-table-versus-bottom six feel to this one as Burnley host Brentford at Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon. The Clarets are scrapping for survival and the Bees are buzzing around the European places, so this tie matters for very different reasons – pride, points and the odd bit of Premier League breathing space.

Form is the big talking point. Burnley have been porous at the back and worryingly guilty of conceding first, while Brentford have been the more consistent outfit and travel having picked up some useful away results. There’s a little rivalry too; these meetings tend to be spicy and, crucially, high on goals.

For punters looking for a steer, our Predictions and Tips take the statistics seriously but keep the cheeky banter alive. If you’re sniffing around the markets, take a look at our roundup of the best football betting sites for context and promos before you lock anything in.

Odds and Predictions

The bookmakers have installed Brentford as clear favourites. Typical market prices read roughly HOME: 10/3 (4.33) — 23.1%, DRAW: 14/5 (3.8) — 26.3%, AWAY: 3/4 (1.75) — 57.1%. Those odds suggest the bookies fancy the Bees to take all three points and the market is giving a healthy vote of confidence to an away win.

Look closer at the odds and you’ll see value pops up if you’re prepared to be picky: Brentford to score first is offered at around 4/7, while Both Teams To Score (BTTS) looks tasty given Burnley’s defensive woes. Our predictions favour a lively game with goals at both ends — the market’s implying Brentford will win, and we’re inclined to agree.

For the cautious bettor there are a couple of sensible Tips: back BTTS and consider Brentford on the moneyline. If you want to be bolder, the 1-2 correct score is a clean, punter-friendly pick reflective of recent meetings and the Clarets’ home struggles.

Comparison and Statistics

When these sides meet the scores rarely stay low. Recent H2H form shows the last eight fixtures yielded a winner each time and five of the previous six produced three or more goals. Burnley have not kept a clean sheet in their last 11 matches — that’s a glaring stat and one the Bees will hope to exploit.

Key numerical talking points:

Burnley have conceded first in six of their last seven matches — an early setback almost a club habit.
At least three goals in five of the last six head to head meetings between the teams.
Brentford have seen more than 11 corners in five of their last seven matches — their wide play and set-piece threat are real assets.

Put simply: the head to head and broader form graphs point to goals. The probability implied by the odds (around 57% for a Brentford win) aligns with the numbers, so our statistical read backs up a pick for the visitors — but with BTTS in play, this isn’t expected to be a shutout.

Expected Line-ups

Burnley are likely to stick with a shape that protects the midfield but still tries to get service to their forward pairing. Expect Dubravka in goal with a back four that will be tested by pace and movement. The team will probably line up with a direct, counter-attacking emphasis, hoping the home crowd at Turf Moor fuels a stubborn display.

Probable Burnley XI: Dubravka (GK); Walker, Worrall, Esteve, Laurent; Ugochukwu, Hannibal, Humphreys; Edwards, Anthony, Flemming. Injuries to key squad members have thinned the options — long-term absentees include Connor Roberts (calf), Josh Cullen (knee), Axel Tuanzebe (heel) and Zeki Amdouni (knee) among others — which forces a pragmatic, workmanlike selection.

Brentford will likely pick a fluid side that presses and looks to create overloads on the flanks. Expect a goalkeeper comfortable with the ball, a ball-playing defence and attackers who can punish mistakes. Rotation and slight tweaks are possible depending on fitness checks.

Probable Brentford XI: Kelleher (GK); Collins, Ajer, Van den Berg, Henry; Henderson, Janelt, Jensen; Ouattara, Schade, Thiago. The Bees are coping with longer-term knee absences to Fabio Carvalho, Antoni Milambo and Joshua Dasilva, with a couple of players being assessed ahead of kick-off, but the core squad is strong enough to travel confidently.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This match is more than three points for Burnley — it’s a morale test in the relegation fight. If they can grind out results at home they keep the faint hope of survival alive, but the points gap to safety means every slip-up tightens the noose. Their defensive frailties suggest survival will require a miraculous upturn or a string of favourable results elsewhere.

For Brentford, a win cements their push for a top-half finish and keeps pressure on the teams around them for European contention. They’ve shown they can pick up points away from home and a tidy victory here would underline their credentials as a stable top-flight outfit with European ambitions rather than a mid-table also-ran.

Looking at the bigger picture, a Brentford win looks like the result that makes sense: it keeps their momentum rolling and hands Burnley another tough afternoon. But football is rarely tidy; with Burnley’s tendency to concede first and both teams finding the net regularly, expect drama. In short — Brentford to nick it, but leave room for a Barnstorming Clarets goal or two.

If you’re after further match previews, odds breakdowns and more tactical chat, our site has a full range of Tips and Predictions to dig into — and you’ll find promotions at the best football betting sites section to sharpen any wager.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”