Burnley vs Chelsea - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Turf Moor 22 November - 12:30

Burnley

Chelsea

Recommended tip Win for Burnley

1: 6.80 X: 4.30 2: 1.47

1: 6.00 X: 4.33 2: 1.44

1: 6.50 X: 4.50 2: 1.45

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Saturday lunchtime at Turf Moor promises a proper scrap as Burnley host Chelsea in what should be a feisty Premier League encounter. This fixture matters because Burnley are desperate to halt a wobble and Chelsea will be eyeing three points to keep pressure on the top end of the table. Expect intensity, set-piece scrambles and the kind of Blackburnian grit that lifts the crowd.

Form is a mixed bag: Burnley have been resilient at home and rarely capitulate, while Chelsea arrive with a squad boasting more quality on paper. There’s a rivalry of sorts — home pride versus visiting pedigree — and plenty of talking points after the international break, not least injuries and who will step up in the final third.

For punters this is one of those matches where the odds will do a lot of the talking. Our Predictions and Tips weigh up the numbers, the head coach chess moves and the mental edge. If you’re shopping around for value, have a look at the best football betting sites before you back anything; small margins matter.

In short: Turf Moor should be loud, the tactical battle intriguing, and this is a fixture that could go either way if Chelsea aren’t fully right. We’ll break down the odds, recent H2H and likely line-ups so you can make an informed call.

Odds and Predictions

The bookies have priced this one up firmly in Chelsea’s favour. Current pre-game odds from Ladbrokes show Home: 11/2 (6.50) – 15.4%, Draw: 10/3 (4.33) – 23.1% and Away: 10/21 (1.48) – 67.7%. Those percentages indicate the market believes Chelsea are the comfortable pick, but as any seasoned punter knows, odds aren’t prophecy — they reflect liability and public money as much as form.

Our Predictions lean towards a close game where Chelsea’s quality should nudge them across the line, but Burnley’s resilience keeps this tight. Against the spread, the hot tip in the brief was Burnley to win (+1.5 handicap), which is sensible if you want cover — it’s effectively backing Burnley to be within one goal or win outright. For straight results, we favour a narrow Chelsea victory but wouldn’t be shocked by a draw.

To be clear: there’s value in both directions. Back Chelsea if you want the likely winner; take Burnley on a +1.5 or consider a small stakes correct-score punt. Our core Tips: look at Chelsea to edge it, and consider Burnley +1.5 for safety.

Comparison and Statistics

Head-to-head (H2H) form tells a story: Chelsea have been dominant recently, going unbeaten across their last 11 meetings with Burnley (eight wins and three draws). That head to head run stretches back to Burnley’s last win in 2017 at Stamford Bridge, so historical momentum favours the visitors.

Look deeper and the picture is less lopsided. Burnley have only lost one home match this season by two goals or more and tend to keep things tight at Turf Moor. Chelsea, meanwhile, have only managed one victory by two goals or more in their last five across competitions — so while they score, they don’t always blow teams away.

Recent results underline that both teams can find the net: six of Burnley’s last eight matches have seen both sides score. Defensively, Burnley concede but are stubborn; Chelsea create chances but have personnel absences that blunt their edge. Put simply, the metrics support a closely fought match — the market odds reflect Chelsea’s superior squad depth, but the stats suggest value for a tight scoreline.

Expected Line-ups

Burnley look set to name a combative eleven with Nicka Jay Dubravka between the sticks. Expect a back four marshalled to frustrate, and a midfield built for grit and transition. The predicted Burnley lineup reads: Dubravka (GK), Walker, Tuanzebe, Esteve, Hartman, Cullen, Florentino, Bruun Larsen, Ugochukwu, Anthony, Flemming. Notable absentees: Armando Broja is out after his international incident, plus Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts and Zek Amdouni remain sidelined.

Chelsea’s XI is likely to be more fluid, with rotation a real possibility given their injury list. Predicted Chelsea lineup: Sanchez (GK), Gusto, Chalobah, Fofana, Cucurella, Caicedo, James, Estevao, Pedro, Garnacho, Delap. Jamie Gittens picked up a knock for the U21s but looks set to be available; longer-term absentees include Enzo Fernandez, Pedro Neto, Benoit Badiashile, Cole Palmer, Romeo Lavia and Levi Colwill.

Tactically, Burnley will favour organisation and direct outlets, hoping to snare Chelsea on the break or from set-pieces. Chelsea will try to dominate possession, probe for gaps and use the wings — Garnacho’s pace is a clear threat. If the Blues are missing key creators, expect manager Carlo to simplify patterns and rely on individual quality.

How Will the Season Pan Out?

This game is more than three points; it’s a momentum test. For Burnley, securing something here stops a slide and keeps them battling in the mid-table tussle. A win would inject belief that survival is achievable without panic, while anything less increases the pressure in a congested lower half.

Chelsea see this as a chance to reaffirm their title or European ambitions — a strong away performance would keep them in the hunt for top-four consistency and build confidence for the winter schedule. Injuries will shape their campaign; get through this period with three points and the season remains very much in their hands.

From a betting perspective, use the odds to your advantage: short-priced favourites like Chelsea are reliable for match-winner stakes, but there’s smarter value in alternate markets — handicaps, both teams to score and correct scores. Our prediction: a narrow Chelsea victory that tests your patience, with Burnley’s fight ensuring the final whistle feels like a hard-earned result.

Last word: back cautiously, respect Turf Moor’s atmosphere, and remember that in the Premier League anything can happen on the day. For more written analysis and longer-term Tips and Predictions across the division, check out our roundup at the site.

Recent Form

Burnley — last five results:

West Ham 3-2 Burnley
Burnley 0-2 Arsenal
Wolves 2-3 Burnley
Burnley 2-0 Leeds
Aston Villa 2-1 Burnley

Chelsea — last five results:

Chelsea 3-0 Wolves
Qarabag 2-2 Chelsea
Tottenham 0-1 Chelsea
Wolves 3-4 Chelsea
Chelsea 1-2 Sunderland

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”