Burnley vs Crystal Palace - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Turf Moor 03 December - 19:30

Burnley

Crystal Palace

Recommended tip Draw

1: 4.85 X: 3.60 2: 1.74

1: 4.80 X: 3.60 2: 1.73

1: 4.75 X: 3.75 2: 1.73

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Right then, midweek drama at Burnley as they host Crystal Palace at Turf Moor on Wednesday night. Scott Parker is feeling the heat and the Clarets need points to quieten the doubters, while Palace arrive smarting after a defeat to Manchester United and will fancy their chances on paper. This is the sort of fixture that looks unglamorous on the schedule but could prove decisive for confidence and momentum.

Form lines and small margins will tell—this isn’t a match for free-flowing football; it’s a scrap. The key talking points are Burnley’s stubborn home record against non-big-six sides, Palace’s slightly wobbly away form, and the obvious absence of a genuine pace threat if Ismaila Sarr is out. For background reading on wider market moves see our football betting sites roundup, but stick with me — we’ll cut through the noise.

Expect a tight, tactical tussle. The Clarets will set up to frustrate and pounce, Palace will try to move the ball but may lack the cutting edge without their winger. In short: a low-scoring game is on the cards and the sort of encounter that turns on one moment of quality or error. These are the kind of matches where the bookies’ odds can be slightly skewed by reputations rather than reality.

Odds and Predictions

The pre-game numbers have Palace as favourites — and that makes sense at first glance. Bookmakers quoted odds of 7/2 (4.50) for a Burnley win, 27/10 (3.70) for a draw and 3/4 (1.75) for a Palace victory, translating roughly to 22.2% for the home side, 27% for stalemate and 57.1% for the visitors. Those odds suggest the market expects Palace to control this one, but sometimes the market over-reacts to recent headlines.

From a punting perspective, the odds imply Palace are comfortably ahead, yet the underlying numbers — home form against mid-table sides, and Palace’s patchy away results — narrow that gap. My predictions lean towards a draw; I’m expecting a scrappy 1-1 rather than a comfortable away win. There’s value in the draw market if you believe Palace are being overpriced at shorter odds.

In terms of betting Tips, backers should consider a small stake on both a draw and under 2.5 goals. The statistics point to low-scoring affairs at Turf Moor and both teams have shown defensive resilience at times. My verdict: play the market sensibly, respect the odds but don’t be blinded by them — the smart move is a conservative punt on a low-scoring draw.

Comparison and Statistics

Head-to-head (H2H) meetings have favoured Palace lately — two wins and two draws in the last four encounters. That recent run explains why the market leans towards Palace, but H2H can be a fickle friend; past meets don’t always mirror current realities. Burnley’s last win over Palace came back in February 2021, so confidence for the Clarets in terms of H2H is limited.

Look at recent form though and the picture is more nuanced. Burnley have collected seven points at home this season against sides outside the big six and have seen fewer than three goals in all six of their home Premier League matches so far — tidy, workmanlike and hard to break down. Palace, conversely, have managed just three points from their last three away league matches, hinting at fatigue or tactical stasis on the road.

Goalscoring numbers back the low-total theory: Burnley’s matches at Turf Moor have been lean, and Palace without Sarr lose genuine pace and unpredictability which often leads to fewer clear-cut chances. If you like data-led bets, the over/under markets and both teams to score lines look worth inspecting. H2H, head to head records and form all suggest a cagey affair.

Expected Line-ups

Scott Parker has a few long-term absentees still to contend with — Connor Roberts, Zeki Amdouni and Jordan Beyer remain sidelined — so expect a pragmatic selection. The likely eleven would see Nicklas Dúbravka in goal, a sturdy backline, and the midfield geared towards protection and transition. Jaidon Anthony could return to the starting XI to add a bit of width and creativity.

Predicted Burnley XI: Dubravka (GK), Walker, Tuanzebe, Esteve, Hartman, Ugochukwu, Cullen, Florentino, Tchaouna, Anthony, Flemming. That looks like a side set up to frustrate and hit on the break — defensively compact with quick outlets.

For Palace, the big concern is the loss of Sarr, who rolled an ankle and will be absent. Oliver Glasner may opt for a forward pairing to keep the pressure on, with Eddie Nketiah likely to lead the line. Expect a back four with Mitchel Guehi marshalling and play through Michael Olise-type runners if fit and selected.

Predicted Palace XI: Henderson (GK), Richards, Lacroix, Guehi, Munoz, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell, Pino, Nketiah, Mateta. The absence of Sarr makes Palace more predictable; that will shape tactical tweaks and could be the deciding factor in a tight match.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This game is a microcosm of mid-table business: Burnley are aiming for solidity and to chip away at safety, while Palace are desperate to maintain momentum for a possible top-half push. A point for Burnley would feel like a win, steadying the ship and buying Parker some breathing room. A Palace victory, meanwhile, would keep them in the conversation for European places and steady Glasner’s tenure.

Predicting the season from one fixture is tempting but risky. That said, if Burnley can continue to make Turf Moor a fortress against non-elite sides, their survival chances look realistic. Palace need creativity and consistency — if Nketiah and Kamada click and the team copes without Sarr, a top-half finish is still on the cards.

For punters tracking the campaign, this tie is one to watch for momentum swings. It’s the sort of match that shapes small runs of form; get the result and confidence follows. My long-term view after this clash is cautious optimism for Burnley’s fight and measured expectation for Palace — both will take lessons from midweek, and that’s why this match matters more than the average Wednesday night fixture.

Final call: tight, low-scoring and competitive — a 1-1 draw feels right. For those after Predictions and Tips, the draw and under 2.5 goals markets look sensible given form, H2H history and the current odds environment.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”