Burnley vs Fulham - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Turf Moor 13 December - 17:30

Burnley

Fulham

Recommended tip Draw

1: 4.00 X: 3.40 2: 1.93

1: 3.75 X: 3.40 2: 1.95

1: 4.00 X: 3.50 2: 1.91

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Bring the scarves and turn up the volume — this one smells like a proper relegation six-pointer. Burnley host Fulham at Turf Moor on Saturday evening and neither side can afford another slip. Both clubs are scraping for points, confidence is low and the stakes are high: three precious points here could ease the pressure or sharpen the knives.

Form suggests caution. Burnley sit perilously in 19th while Fulham are only a few places and a smattering of points clear in 15th. Both teams are among the seven lowest scorers in the division, which sets us up for a tight, tense encounter rather than an open, free-scoring affair. Expect fouls, moments of individual brilliance and a lot of nervy defending.

There’s a little history too — a series of low-drama H2H meetings that have favoured Burnley in recent years. That familiarity adds an edge: it’s not the first time these managers will have plotted against one another and both will know how to stifle the opposition. For readers looking for pointers, check out our top football betting sites write-ups for more tips from around the division.

Odds and Predictions

The bookies have drawn a line in the sand — Fulham are marginal favourites to take all three points. Latest Ladbrokes odds read: Home 29/10 (3.90) – 25.6%, Draw 5/2 (3.50) – 28.6%, Away 19/20 (1.95) – 51.3%. Those implied probabilities tell the story: Fulham are expected to nick it, but the market hasn’t written off a draw or Burnley grabbing something.

When we talk odds we’re not just quoting numbers — we’re reading moods. Fulham’s slightly shorter price reflects their steadier mid-table pedigree and a squad less ravaged by suspensions, while Burnley’s slump and red-card issues have pushed punters towards the Cottagers. Still, the gap is modest; bookmakers price in a tight game, which is why low-scoring predictions look tempting.

Our tip leans conservative: we expect goals to be at a premium. Both sides are low scorers and Burnley’s recent home form hasn’t suggested an attacking renaissance. The correct-score call is 1-1 — shared points and both defences doing just enough. In betting speak, that translates to backing a draw along with Under 2.5 total goals as the hot play.

Comparison and Statistics

Head to head (H2H) history slightly favours Burnley. The Clarets are unbeaten in six previous meetings across all competitions and the last fixture between the pair ended 2-2 in February 2024 — proof that tight contests can produce the odd burst of entertainment. But recent form tables tell a grimmer tale for both.

Burnley have lost six league games in a row and their goals-for column is among the lowest in the league. Fulham, meanwhile, have lost two on the bounce and three of their previous five. Both sides have holes in midfield creativity and finishing — that’s why we’re pencilling in a low-scoring draw rather than a confident away win.

Look at the numbers: conceding plagues Burnley, yet Fulham have been shipping goals too (that 4-5 with Manchester City doesn’t flatter their defence). Momentum is fragile on both sides — psychological factors like suspensions and recent red cards can swing a match at this level. So while form suggests Fulham are a touch more likely to win, the head to head and the raw stats underpin a stalemate.

Expected Line-ups

Selection headaches will define the managers’ gameplans. Burnley arrive with a few suspensions — Lucas Pires joins Kyle Walker and Hannibal Mejbri on the banned list after that red at Newcastle — and there’s a lengthy injury list meaning some makeshift solutions. Expect Dubravka in goal, with Sonne, Ekdal, Esteve and Hartman forming a compact back four. Midfield will likely see Florentino paired with Cullen, ahead of a forward line built around Tchaouna and Foster.

Fulham look healthier on paper, though long-term absentees like Ryan Sessegnon, Antonee Robinson and Rodrigo Muniz remain out. David Raya’s replacement in this snapshot is Leno in goal, with Tete, Andersen, Bassey and Castagne across the back. Berge and Iwobi should screen the midfield while Wilson, Smith Rowe, Chukwueze and Jimenez provide the attacking outlets.

Tactically expect Burnley to be compact, hard to break down and direct from set-pieces. Fulham will try to probe and press higher, but may be wary of overcommitting given Burnley’s counter options. The missing names on Burnley’s teamsheet hurt their creativity; if that remains the case, it’s another tick for under 2.5 goals in our predictions and a strong case for a draw.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This match matters beyond Saturday’s headlines. For Burnley, the battle is survival — every dropped point pulls them deeper into a relegation scrap that could define the campaign. A win here would kick-start confidence and give the manager breathing room. For Fulham, a victory would consolidate their mid-table safety bid and keep pressure off transfers in January.

Looking further ahead, neither club can rely on miracles. Burnley must reintegrate injured players and cut out the red cards if they’re to drag themselves up the table. Fulham have the squad depth to aim for a steady mid-table finish and possibly push for European contention if they find consistency, but defensive frailties must be addressed.

Practically, this fixture is a pivot: a draw keeps the pressure on Burnley but also denies Fulham momentum. Our confident call is conservative — this season will likely be defined by small margins, and Saturday’s 1-1 draw fits the narrative of two cautious sides trying to stop the rot. For punters, the combination of a draw and Under 2.5 goals looks the shrewd play in the short term.

Key Stats & Player to Watch

Burnley have lost six league games in a row.
Fulham have lost two of their last two, and three of five.
Burnley are unbeaten in six H2H meetings between the sides.

Keep an eye on Harry Wilson for Fulham — he’s had a goal or an assist in his last three appearances and can change a tight game with a moment of quality. If Wilson gets sight of goal, Fulham instantly become more dangerous; if Burnley can nullify him, expect a scrappy encounter that validates our predictions and tips.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”