Burnley vs Newcastle - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Turf Moor 30 December - 19:30

Burnley

Newcastle

Recommended tip Draw

1: 5.25 X: 3.90 2: 1.63

1: 5.00 X: 4.00 2: 1.62

1: 5.50 X: 4.00 2: 1.62

#AD, 18+ T&C apply!

Step right up to a proper New Year’s Eve warm‑up as Burnley welcome Newcastle to Turf Moor on Tuesday night. This isn’t just another midweek fixture — it’s a six-pointer for the Clarets and a pressure cooker for Eddie Howe’s men, who need to rediscover some mojo away from home.

Both sides carry baggage: Burnley are scrapping to stay afloat while Newcastle are puzzling fans with an inconsistent run. That blend of desperation and quality generally makes for a lively contest. For a broader spread of markets and markets comparisons check football betting sites to line up the best value before you stake.

Form, fitness and that peculiar psychological edge of late goals are all talking points here. Expect openness, chances at both ends and the sort of late drama the Premier League specialises in. Our Predictions and Tips below favour an open draw with both teams troubling the scorers.

Let’s dig in — odds, probable XIs and H2H history all get a proper going‑over so you can place your bets with a smirk rather than a stab in the dark.

Odds and Predictions

The bookies clearly fancy Newcastle — the pre‑match odds make the Magpies favourites, but there’s value in the nuance. Newcastle’s price of around 61/100 (1.61) says the market trusts their squad depth even when injuries bite, while Burnley’s 17/4 (5.25) underlines how big an ask survival is for the hosts. The draw sits around 3/1 (4.00), which is tempting given Burnley’s stubborn recent draws.

Those odds tell a story, but not the whole tale. Newcastle’s away form is shaky and Burnley, for all their recent woes, have stopped the rot a little with back‑to‑back draws. In short: the market expects an away win, our predictions lean towards a tight, high‑intensity draw with goals either side — a classic both teams to score scenario.

From a punting perspective, you can split stakes: small value on Newcastle to win for safety and a spicy each‑way/accumulator line on both teams to score and the draw. Remember to shop around — odds move, and a few extra ticks can make a difference when you’re backing longshots.

Final match prediction: 1-1. It’s a game that’ll be won in the last half hour — and the statistics suggest late goals are likely, so live markets could be your friend.

Comparison and Statistics

Head to head form heavily favours Newcastle. The Magpies have enjoyed a dominant run, winning seven straight Premier League meetings against Burnley in recent years. That kind of record plays on the mind, but football rarely repeats in a straight line.

Digging into the numbers you find intriguing quirks: only one of Burnley’s nine home Premier League games this season has seen over 2.5 goals, which hints at a tight, low‑scoring turf. Conversely, Newcastle have shipped ten of their 23 league goals after the 75th minute — they bleed late, which is exactly the sort of stat punters should love when weighing up in‑play odds.

There are more nuggets to munge: Newcastle have been caught offside a league‑low 18 times and lead the division for corners — evidence of their territorial play. Burnley, meanwhile, owe their survival hopes to organisation and set‑piece grit rather than free‑flowing football. H2H tells you who usually comes out on top; the finer stats show where the value in predictions and markets lies.

Recent form (selected):

Burnley: 0-0 Everton, 1-1 Bournemouth, 2-3 Fulham, 1-2 Newcastle, 0-1 Crystal Palace
Newcastle: Man United 1-0 Newcastle, Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea, Newcastle 2-1 Fulham (EFL Cup), Sunderland 1-0 Newcastle, Newcastle 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen

Expected Line‑ups

Both managers will have headaches. Burnley’s injury list includes Jordan Beyer, Connor Roberts and Axel Tuanzebe; Maxime Esteve and Joe Worrall are doubts. Scott Parker is likely to set up defensively but with a clear plan to exploit Newcastle on the break.

Predicted Burnley XI (probable):

Dubravka (GK); Laurent, Ekdal, Humphreys, Walker; Ugochukwu, Florentino; Pires, Edwards, Broja; Bruun Larsen

Newcastle’s defensive absentees are significant — Dan Burn, Emil Krafth, Jamaal Lascelles, Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman and Tino Livramento are all listed out, leaving Eddie Howe to improvise at the back. The midfield balance will be key: Guimarães and Tonali will be asked to do the heavy lifting.

Predicted Newcastle XI (probable):

Ramsdale (GK); Miley, Thiaw, Schar, Hall; Guimaraes, Tonali, Ramsey; Murphy, Woltemade, Gordon

Tactically expect Burnley to sit and absorb early pressure, inviting Newcastle to overcommit and then pounce on turnovers. Howe may tinker with a narrow midfield to protect a makeshift defence, meaning late substitutions could decide the contest.

How Will the Season Pan Out?

This fixture is a microcosm of what both clubs face. For Burnley, every point is precious. Sitting six points adrift of safety, their season hinges on grinding out results at home and nicking points on the road. If Parker can steady the ship and shore up injuries, survival is still on the cards — but there’s very little margin for error.

Newcastle’s campaign has stalled and a poor run could see them slip further from European ambitions into a flat mid‑table battle. The January window is pivotal; bringing bodies back and perhaps a defensive recruit could transform their fortunes. Right now, predictions for Newcastle are cautious rather than bullish.

In the bigger picture, this match will either be a lifeline for Burnley or a warning sign for Newcastle. Our tip, based on the odds and the head to head history, is a draw — a tight, tense 1-1 with both teams finding the net. Backing BTTS and keeping a small stake on an away win is a pragmatic betting approach.

Short and sharp: expect late goals, expect drama, and expect this result to have ripple effects on the remaining fixtures of the season. Place your bets sensibly and consider live markets for best value as the game ebbs and flows.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”