Burnley vs West Ham - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Turf Moor 07 February - 15:00

Burnley

West Ham

Recommended tip Win for West Ham

1: 3.25 X: 3.30 2: 2.15

1: 3.45 X: 3.55 2: 2.08

1: 3.40 X: 3.40 2: 2.20

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It’s a proper six-pointer at Turf Moor as Burnley host West Ham on 7 February — a fixture with more teeth than a terrier. Both clubs sit perilously close to the drop and with only 14 games left this match feels less like a mid-season blip and more like a destiny-defining scrap. Expect cagey moments, end-to-end graft and the sort of tension that has neutrals reaching for the remote.

The form books make grim reading for the hosts and twitchy viewing for their fans: Burnley are perilously close to matching a historical unwanted record for winless runs, while West Ham have shown flashes of bite in recent weeks. This match carries massive relegation ramifications and plenty of talking points — especially the opening exchanges. If you want a quick round-up of market movers and more content, check our best football betting sites for extra angles.

There’s spice to this one: Turf Moor’s infamous atmosphere, the tactical tussle between managers and that nagging stat that Burnley have been porous inside the first 15 minutes — and West Ham love to pounce early. Whether you’re here for Predictions or looking for a cheeky Tips column, this fixture will give punters plenty to chew over.

In short, this is a trap for the unwary. Burnley must score to breathe life into their survival bid, but West Ham look likelier to take the initiative. Expect early drama and a contest that could tilt the relegation scrap one way or the other.

Odds and Predictions

The markets have leaned towards the visitors and it’s not hard to see why. Current pre-game odds (Ladbrokes) read: Home 23/10 (3.30) — 30.3%, Draw 12/5 (3.40) — 29.4%, Away 23/20 (2.15) — 46.5%. The odds suggest the bookies see West Ham as the side most likely to nick the three points, and the implied probabilities back that up.

Those figures tell a story: you’re being invited to back a team in better attacking nick against a defender-heavy outfit that is wobbling badly. Our predictions lean with the flow. West Ham’s recent ability to score early — and Burnley’s alarmingly soft start to matches — make a first-goal punt credible. For punters looking for a bit of value, an early-goal market or West Ham to score first holds appeal.

That said, nothing in football is guaranteed. Burnley at home can still make life uncomfortable and have splashed a few decent results this season. So while the headline prediction is in favour of the visitors, the safer Tips for cautious punters are to consider both teams to score and anytime scorer markets for the Hammers’ frontmen.

For the bold, the correct-score prediction is 2-3 in favour of West Ham — a nod to the defensive frailties on show from both camps and the attacking outlets the visitors possess. Whatever your approach, factor the odds, form and match-day heat into any staking plan.

Comparison and Statistics

Facts and figures are the meat and drink of any proper H2H analysis. Head to head, West Ham have had Burnley’s number of late: unbeaten in the last seven Premier League meetings and victorious in four of those clashes. The reverse fixture earlier in the season finished 3-2 to West Ham, underlining the recurring trend of open, high-scoring encounters.

Digging deeper, the numbers are unsettling for the hosts. Burnley have conceded five home goals before the 15th minute across the campaign — the most in the league — while West Ham lead the league with 15 goals scored inside the first 15 minutes. That particular stat pairs nicely with the market odds and frames a clear narrative: expect intensity from the off.

Defensively both sides are leaky. West Ham have shipped 48 goals in 24 games; Burnley aren’t far adrift at 47. The Hammers haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 21 league games, which is damning but also suggests opportunities for both sides to score. Recent form: Burnley are without a league win in 15, losing 10; West Ham had a three-game winning run before losing to Chelsea, so momentum sits with the visitors.

When you pair the H2H trends with current form tables, the likely pattern is a chaotic, end-to-end first half followed by tactical adjustments. That’s music to the ears of in-play traders and punters who like to watch and react.

Expected Line-ups

Team sheets look fairly settled, though Burnley’s injury list nudges Scott Parker into a bit of improvisation. With Josh Cullen out injured since December (knee), plus Connor Roberts and Mohamed Amdouni sidelined, Burnley’s midfield options are thinner than they’d like. Zian Flemming returned in the recent defeat and could offer a spark.

Predicted Burnley XI: Dubravka; Tuanzebe, Esteve, Humphreys; Walker, Ugochukwu, Flemming, Pires; Edwards, Anthony; Foster. Expect a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 shape that tries to shield the centre-backs but also invites West Ham to press high early — precisely the scenario that has seen Burnley concede within minutes this season.

On the road, West Ham will be without Jean-Clair Todibo following his suspension after the fracas with Chelsea. Beyond that, manager Nuno Espirito Santo has a near-full squad to pick from and is likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 with plenty of licence for the wide men to bomb forward.

Predicted West Ham XI: Areola; Wan-Bissaka, Mavropanos, Kilman, Diouf; Soucek, Fernandes; Bowen, Pablo, Summerville; Castellanos. The absence of Todibo nudges a slightly more conservative centre-back pairing, but the midfield and attack retain the firepower to punish early lapses.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This fixture is far more than three points — it’s a momentum marker. A win for Burnley would be the tonic required to kickstart a survival revival and stem the rot of that extended winless streak. Conversely, a West Ham victory would lift them six points clear of their hosts and potentially put a psychological dent in Burnley’s already fragile confidence.

Looking at the bigger picture, both sides are fighting different battles: Burnley for immediate survival and to avoid matching historical lows; West Ham for stability and to climb out of danger while aiming for mid-table respectability. The outcome here will influence transfer-room conversations, fan morale and the manager’s standing in the dressing room.

Over the season, if West Ham can shore up those defensive frailties — a big if — they’ll likely finish comfortably above the drop. Burnley need points fast; without a quick turnaround, the calendar could start to read Championship by default. Our pundit take: West Ham have the tools to get out of trouble, while Burnley are running out of road.

Final word of common sense: back the market that aligns with the facts and keep stakes sensible. Predictions and Tips are only as good as your bankroll; in this case, the smart play is to side with West Ham for the win and consider specials on an early goal.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”