Crystal Palace vs Man City

Selhurst Park 14 December - 14:00

Crystal Palace

Manchester City

Recommended tip Win for Man City

1: 3.95 X: 3.80 2: 1.84

1: 4.00 X: 3.75 2: 1.85

1: 3.90 X: 3.90 2: 1.85

#AD, 18+ T&C apply!

Pull up a seat, pour the tea and get the banter ready – on Sunday it’s Crystal Palace hosting Man City at Selhurst Park, and this one smells of an away win to me. Palace will be desperate to stop the rot after a tricky run following European fixtures, while City arrive in full throttle having cut Arsenal’s lead and renewed belief inside the squad.

The fixture matters because momentum in December can set the tone for the title run-in; both clubs have everything to play for and very little margin for error. There’s a tactical chess match here too — Glasner’s side must balance recovery with attacking intent, while Guardiola will want to keep the pedal down. Expect high stakes and a few smart gambles from both benches.

For anyone shopping around the markets, our Predictions and Tips favour a tight City victory but not without scars. If you’re looking for a quick dive into the markets and extra insight, check out our football betting sites guide for a steer on where to find the best value before you stake.

Form, fatigue and mindset are the big talking points. Palace’s post-European record is patchy and City’s recent run suggests they’re peaking — that combination makes the early whispers in the bookies worth a second look.

Odds and Predictions

The bookmakers have had their say: home 3/1 (4.00) – 25%, draw 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8%, and away 17/20 (1.85) – 54.1% (odds from Ladbrokes). Those numbers show a clear market lean toward City and explain why many of the smarter punters are backing the away win.

Reading the odds, the market thinks City are favourites but not invincible. A 54% implied probability isn’t a guarantee, it’s an invitation to find value elsewhere — maybe in the correct score or goal markets. My predictions favour a tight 2-1 win for City: they’ll control phases, while Palace will carve out moments on the break.

Looking at tips for alternative bets, consider both teams to score given Palace’s ability to nick a goal and City’s recent high-scoring affairs. Over two goals has featured heavily in City’s last fixtures, so goals should be on the menu. In short: odds point to an away win, but the market suggests a competitive drama rather than a stroll.

Correct score from my notebook? Crystal Palace 1-2 Man City. I’d back that if you want a price that matches probability and narrative.

Comparison and Statistics

Head-to-head and H2H form give Guardiola’s men the bragging rights. Palace haven’t beaten City at Selhurst Park since 2015 — a long time in football years. City’s recent meetings have shown their tactical superiority and depth, especially late in games.

Form tables paint a simple picture: City have won their last four across competitions and are scoring freely. Palace, by contrast, have struggled immediately after European nights — losing three of their last four matches that followed continental commitments — which is a worrying trend for the hosts here.

Numbers to note: City’s last four matches have featured more than two goals each time, indicating both attacking fluidity and a willingness to leave gaps. Palace have found resilience in pockets but concede too often when up against elite finishing. Those stats make the ‘both teams to score’ and ‘over 2.5 goals’ markets worth a look.

Don’t forget momentum: City have closed a seven-point gap to two, a swing that changes pressure and psychology. Palace will believe they can make a statement, but the underlying metrics favour the visitors — particularly when you factor in squad depth and recent injury lists.

Expected Line-ups

Glasner faces selection headaches. Ismaila Sarr looks touch-and-go after an ankle problem; the temptation to pitch him straight back in is high, but one wrong tackle and the consequences could be season-ending. Palace will also be without Daniel Munoz, Cheick Doucoure, Chadi Riad, Rio Cardines and Caleb Kporha, which weakens their options on the bench.

Predicted Palace XI (probable): Henderson (GK), Richards, Lacroix, Guehi, Clyne, Wharton, Kamada, Mitchell, Pino, Nketiah, Mateta. Expect a compact midfield shape with quick breaks out wide; defending set pieces will need to be sharp if Palace hope to eke out something.

City’s treatment room is relatively clear of fresh issues, though Mateo Kovacic, Rodri and John Stones remain sidelined. Guardiola has shown a liking for continuity, so expect minimal changes after the Real Madrid win — the same XI tinkering philosophy applies here.

Predicted City XI (probable): Donnarumma (GK), Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly, Nico, Reijnders, Cherki, Foden, Doku, Haaland. Tactically, City will look to dominate possession, use Haaland as the focal point and overload the wide channels. Bench options will be crucial late on for Guardiola to shift gears.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This game is a slice of the bigger picture. For City, three points keeps the title race alive and keeps the pressure squarely on Arsenal. For Palace, a result would be season-defining, potentially catapulting them into mid-table safety and proving Glasner’s project can grind out results against elite opponents.

If City win here, expect them to keep pushing for the title with a belief that their squad can withstand injury blips. A draw or Palace victory, meanwhile, would inject serious unpredictability into December and possibly tilt momentum toward the chasing pack.

Longer term, Palace need to manage squad rotation and keep key players fit for the January sprint — their post-European form suggests that recovery protocols will be a talking point. City, blessed with depth, can absorb short-term knocks and will look to peak in the run-in, aiming for consistency across league and Europe.

Final word: the smart money reads Man City to nick it but expect Palace to make them work. Our tip stands: Win for Man City — but don’t be surprised if the scoreboard reads 2-1 after ninety minutes of proper Premier League drama.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”