Everton vs Aston Villa – Betting Odds & Predictions – Premier League 25/26

Hill Dickinson Stadium (Liverpool, Merseyside) 13 September - 15:00

Everton

VS

Aston Villa

Recommended tip Win for Everton

1: 2.45 X: 3.25 2: 2.90

1: 2.45 X: 3.30 2: 2.90

1: 2.50 X: 3.34 2: 2.93

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There’s a real north-west vs Midlands hum in the air as Everton welcome Aston Villa to the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Saturday afternoon. This Premier League fixture matters more than the three points on paper — it’s about confidence, momentum and a club’s ability to answer early-season questions. Everton have started bright and neat, while Villa look bereft of goals and ideas; that contrast makes for tasty predictions and, for the punters among us, juicy Tips.

If you’re shopping around before placing a punt, take a look at the football betting sites to compare odds and markets — every fraction and decimal tells a story. The big talking points here are Everton’s defensive shape, Villa’s scoring drought and how managers set up tactically. Expect energy, pressing and a few flurries of nerves as both sets of supporters will be on high alert.

This fixture has a little H2H spice to it too; recent head to head meetings have been a mixed bag and suggest neither side can be taken lightly. For the neutral, a 0-0 or a narrow 2-0 is an appealing prospect — for the bettors, the market is already nudging towards a tidy Everton win. Keep an eye on the odds and the in-play shifts; with Villa yet to find the net this season, the door is open for a specific ‘to win to nil’ angle.

Put simply: Everton look organised, Villa look rusty. The pundit in me smells a home clean sheet and a morale-boosting victory for the hosts, but football always carries a sting in the tail — hence why we love it and why odds and predictions matter so much.

Odds and Predictions

Bookmakers have Everton as slight favourites, which aligns with form and the injury news doing the rounds. Pre-game odds listed by major firms sit around:

• Home: 29/20 (2.45) – implied probability ~40.8%
• Draw: 9/4 (3.25) – implied probability ~30.8%
• Away: 15/8 (2.88) – implied probability ~34.8%

Those odds suggest a tight contest on paper, but smart money will note Villa’s alarming inability to score so far this season. Our predictions lean towards Everton controlling the game, limiting Villa’s chances and converting on a couple of clear openings. For punters looking for a touch of safety, the ‘Win for Everton’ market makes sense, and the specialist tip of Everton to win to nil offers better value given Villa’s drought.

There’s also value in looking at alternatives: Everton under 1.5 goals, Everton clean sheet, or a correct score of 2-0. Mind the market though — odds change quickly and in-play swings can be generous if the first 15 minutes go either way. Use the odds to inform your staking plan and don’t be drawn to chasing to nil markets without checking team news.

In short, our headline Betting Tip is conservative but confident: Everton to take all three points, and the to-nil angle is tempting. Those are the kind of predictions where form, facts and a glance at the betting lines all agree.

Comparison and Statistics

Recent H2H form is a little deceptive: over the last five meetings across competitions, Aston Villa have the edge with three wins to Everton’s one and a single draw. However, context matters — those victories include different managers, different tactics and, crucially, different squads. The head to head record counts, but current form is trumping historical bragging rights this month.

Looking at the form table, Everton have picked up six points from three league games and arrive with momentum. They’ve kept clean sheets recently and look compact in defensive phases. Villa, by contrast, have managed just one point and remain the only Premier League side yet to score a goal. That statistic is hard to ignore when weighing up predictions and how likely both teams to score (BTTS) is — the ‘no’ looks the safer play.

Goals for and against tell the tale: Everton’s attack has been efficient rather than spectacular, while their defence has been resolute. Villa’s shot conversion is worryingly low and the creation numbers aren’t flattering either. Expect a cagey opening and fewer clear chances than you might hope for; this sets up nicely for Everton to frustrate and pick a moment to punish Villa on the break or from a set-piece.

Expected Line-ups

Team news shapes markets and, in this case, it’s a marginal advantage for the hosts. Everton have a few absentees in defence with Vitaliy Mykolenko sidelined after returning from international duty, and Jarrad Branthwaite definitely out. Adam Aznou and Nathan Patterson are doubtful which may force some tinkering at full-back. Expect a pragmatic back four and midfield that prioritises shape.

Probable Everton XI: Pickford (GK); O’Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Garner; Gueye, Iroegbunam; Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Barry. That reads like a side built to close spaces and exploit Villa’s low block on transitions.

Villa could hand early minutes to summer recruits in search of a spark. Injuries to Onana and Barkley are a blow, while Matty Cash and Boubacar Kamara are doubts. If managers opt for freshness, look for a line-up featuring Martinez in goal, a three/flat back pairing of Konsa, Torres and Mings, and a forward line led by Ollie Watkins with Elliott and Sancho flanking him.

Probable Villa XI: Martinez (GK); Konsa, Torres, Mings, Digne; Tielemans, McGinn, Rogers; Elliott, Watkins, Sancho. How Villa set up will determine whether this is end-to-end or parked-bus vs counter — my money is on a cautious Villa, which plays into Everton’s hands.

How Will the Season Pan Out?

This fixture is an early litmus test. For Everton, three points here would reinforce a push towards mid-table security and maybe a late run at European contention if things click. A clean sheet and a win would do wonders for morale and provide a platform to build consistency through the autumn fixtures.

For Villa, the season already carries a little alarm: being goalless after three games is not where a club with top-six ambitions wants to be. If the drought stretches the manager’s decisions will become increasingly scrutinised and January activity could be on the cards unless new signings hit the ground running.

Looking further ahead, a win for Everton keeps them in the conversation for surprise packages this season; a Villa victory would be a much-needed reset and a reminder that past H2H form isn’t everything. Either way, this match is a small but meaningful chapter in both campaigns and could have ripple effects when squads rotate and injuries mount.

Final thought: back Everton with a degree of caution — the safe headline is ‘Win for Everton’ and the specialist tip of Everton to win to nil is the gutsy punt that could pay nicely if the Villa woes continue.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”