Everton vs Leeds - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Hill Dickinson Stadium 26 January - 20:00

Everton

Leeds

Recommended tip Draw

1: 2.50 X: 3.10 2: 2.98

1: 2.45 X: 3.00 2: 2.90

1: 2.50 X: 3.10 2: 3.00

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Roll up, roll up — Monday night’s Premier League serving offers us a proper scrap as Everton welcome Leeds to the Hill Dickinson Stadium. This isn’t just another fixture chalked in the planner; it’s a clash with teeth. Everton are sniffing at European qualification but have a worrying home drop-off, while Leeds have been pulled back into the relegation jostle and will be desperate to grind out points.

Form, injuries and pride all collide here. The hosts have stumbled over recent home ties, and the visitors have quietly become difficult to beat — a combination that makes this one of those games where the bookies’ odds will have punters muttering into their tea. If you’re skimming predictions and Tips, this preview will serve up the nuance you need before you place a bet — and if you want a quick browse of the best lines, check the best football betting sites for comparisons.

There’s a lovely bit of narrative to relish: Everton’s European hopes versus Leeds’ fight for survival. Rivalries like this don’t need decades of bad blood; form and bragging rights are enough. Expect a tight, tactical affair with moments of chaos — the sort that yields a 1-1 or a narrow win, depending on who takes their chances.

Odds and Predictions

Looking at the pre-match odds — Everton around 7/5 (2.40), Draw 11/5 (3.20), Leeds 2/1 (3.00) — the market is giving the home side a slight edge, but not by much. The percentages sit roughly Everton 42%, Draw 31%, Leeds 33%. Those numbers scream tightness; the bookies are effectively saying this is a coin with a slight Everton bias.

That’s reflected in our predictions. Everton’s inconsistency at home has chipped away at their perceived value; Leeds’ resilience on the road and recent run of not losing makes them a tempting back. Our tip leans to a draw — the merits of a clean 1-1 scoreline look the likeliest outcome given both clubs’ recent trends and the expected conservatism from managers on a Monday night.

For the adventurous punter, consider the value in both teams to score markets. Everton have seen both teams find the net in three of their last four, while Leeds have shown enough attacking impetus to punish defensive lapses. When weighing up odds and predictions, a modest stake on Both Teams To Score might be the sensible compromise between ambition and caution.

Comparison and Statistics

When you dig into the H2H and recent form, there isn’t a great deal to separate these clubs. Their most recent three meetings produced a home win, an away win and a draw — a decent snapshot that explains why this tie feels so finely balanced. The head to head record suggests neither side has a psychological stranglehold on the other.

Form tables tell an interesting story. Everton’s home results have been patchy — no win in the last four at Goodison (or the renamed venue) — while Leeds have lost just one of their last ten across competitions. Goals-wise, Everton have been both leaky and fluent at times: they can score but they also concede, which invites Leeds’ counter-attacking threat into the contest.

Everton: mixed home form, capable attack, occasional defensive lapses.
Leeds: resilient away performances, recent momentum, defensive discipline improving.
H2H: three recent meetings with one win each and a draw — nails the tightness.

All of which steers us back to the market odds: tight, and leaning to a draw or a narrow Rangers-style away point for Leeds. That’s the reality the data paints; the intangible — urgency on the night — could tilt it either way.

Expected Line-ups

Both teams will have selection headaches. Everton are missing Jack Grealish through a stress fracture and Michael Keane remains absent, while reports suggest Jarrod Branthwaite, Carlos Alcaraz and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall are also likely to miss out. Managerially, expect Moyes to set up solidly, aim to control midfield and hit Leeds on the break.

Predicted Everton XI: Pickford (GK), Patterson, O’Brien, Tarkowski, Mykolenko, Rohl, Garner, Ndiaye, Armstrong, McNeil, Barry. Iliman Ndiaye’s return from AFCON is a major boost — his dribbling and direct running could unsettle Leeds’ full-backs and offer the catalyst for Everton’s attacks.

Leeds head into the game with a slightly rosier injury update as Anton Stach has returned to contention. Jaka Bijol and Daniel James are out, but Daniel Farke can still pick from a shrewd squad. Expect a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3 depending on whether he wants more bite in midfield or thrust up front.

Predicted Leeds XI: Darlow (GK), Justin, Struijk, Rodon, Bogle, Stach, Aaronson, Ampadu, Gudmundsson, Nmecha, Calvert-Lewin. If Stach starts, his physicality and passing range could help Leeds control the midfield battle and snuff out Everton’s rhythm.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This game carries weight beyond three points. For Everton, a decent second half of the campaign could see them nudge into European contention — but it requires consistency at home, and matches like this are precisely where you must pick up points. A home loss would be a statement that their early promise was false dawn; a draw keeps the hope flickering.

For Leeds, every point is gold. The relegation battleground is unforgiving; squeezing draws on the road and nicking narrow wins at home will define their survival bid. Picking up something at Everton would be a massive morale boost and could be the springboard to steady their season.

Overall prediction: this one smells of a draw. Tight margins, cautious tactics and the bookmakers’ compact odds all point towards a 1-1 scoreline. It’s the sort of result that feels fair on paper, gives both camps something to build on, and keeps the drama alive for the months ahead.

Final Tip: Draw — both teams have reasons to be cautious and enough attacking teeth to make the game entertaining without producing a decisive winner.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”