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There’s nothing like a Merseyside derby to sharpen the senses and today the stage is set at Anfield as Liverpool host Everton in a lunchtime showdown that matters for pride as much as points. The Reds arrive unbeaten in the league and flying after four wins from four, while the Toffees have been tidy early on and will fancy themselves to spoil the party. Local bragging rights, momentum and the inevitable banter on social media mean this one will be circled on every fan’s calendar.
The formbook reads well for the home side but there are question marks in their defence — Liverpool have managed just two clean sheets so far this season — which makes the prospect of BTTS an attractive angle for punters. Expect tempo, probing wide play from the visitors and a few late twists; this derby rarely serves up a dull 90 minutes. For readers after the best value, check our round-up of football betting sites for where to shop the markets before kick-off.
Stick with me and I’ll run through the odds, give my predictions and a proper line-up sniff. There’s rivalry here, there’s form and there’s a lot at stake for both camps — perfect ingredients for a cracking derby.
Short version of the hot tip: Reds to take the three points and both teams to score. Fancy talk? Maybe. Evidence? Absolutely.
Odds and Predictions
Bookmakers have Liverpool clear favourites and the numbers reflect that. Current pre-match odds suggest a home win is heavily favoured, with the draw and Everton win priced up as the outsider outcomes. Those odds shape how we should approach value bets and match markets — favourites don’t always cover the price, especially in derby games.
- HOME: 4/9 (1.44) – 69.2%
- DRAW: 16/5 (4.20) – 23.8%
- AWAY: 19/4 (5.75) – 17.4%
Interpreting the odds: the implied probabilities favour the Reds to claim the win, but a near-24% chance of a draw and the Toffees’ early defensive solidity make trading the match markets sensible. The fact Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets nudges us towards backing goals — both teams to score (BTTS) combined with a Liverpool win is an enticing proposition at sensible prices.
So, my predictions and tips: back Liverpool to win and both teams to score. For punters who want a bit more spice, consider a correct score of 2-1 to Liverpool — it’s the kind of close, late-deciding scoreline this fixture tends to produce. Remember to shop around the odds for best value and keep stakes measured.
Comparison and Statistics
Let’s dig into the H2H and recent numbers. Historically this fixture is unpredictable, but Liverpool have held the upper hand in recent times — they’ve lost only once in their last eight meetings. Everton, however, have picked up encouraging results in some of those ties and will point to their resilience away from home as evidence they can frustrate.
Head to head detail: Everton have won one and drawn one of their last three meetings, but they’ve been beaten on each of their last four visits to Anfield. Those home form demons for the visitors are relevant; Anfield can be an intimidating place for opposition full-backs and central defenders when the Kop gets going.
Looking at form tables and goals: Liverpool are the league’s in-form side early on, scoring freely and nicking results late. Everton have conceded just three goals in the Premier League so far this season, which speaks to their organisation at the back when key men are fit. Conversely, Liverpool’s two clean sheets hint that while they score, they also invite pressure at times — hence the BTTS theory.
Momentum plays a part. Liverpool’s run of five wins in a row across competitions gives them confidence, but derby energy can level matters. Expect a tight first hour with chances opening up late; historically this fixture produces late goals and dramatic swings.
Expected Line-ups
Team selection will be key and both managers have tactical choices to make. For Liverpool, rotation after midweek is possible but the manager may stick with the attack-minded XI that showed teeth in the Champions League. Curtis Jones is reported as the only notable Liverpool injury absentee, which gives the manager options in midfield.
Predicted Liverpool lineup: Alisson; Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo, Isak. The front four have the pace and finishing touch to punish slow defensive shifts, while the midfield balance will aim to feed the wide forwards and control transitions.
Everton, meanwhile, will be juggling defensive absences. Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitaliy Mykolenko are likely to miss, which forces a reshuffle and could leave the Toffees light on natural left-sided cover. That said, their squad has coped admirably so far and tactical discipline will be front and centre.
Predicted Everton lineup: Pickford; O’Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Garner; Gueye, Iroegbunam; Ndiaye, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish; Beto. Expect a compact midfield, with quick breaks through the wide men and an emphasis on preventing the Reds from controlling transitional play. Set-pieces could be crucial given Everton’s aerial options.
How Will the Season Pan Out
This game is more than just bragging rights — it’s an early-season barometer. For Liverpool, maintaining a perfect start would reinforce their title credentials and keep pressure on the other big hitters. A win here would be a statement that they can grind out results even without defensive perfection.
Everton’s ambitions are different but no less significant. Early season points have them comfortably placed around the upper half and a positive result at Anfield would signal real progress and push them further into the European conversation. Conversely, a defeat won’t be terminal but could dent confidence if the manner of the loss is poor.
Over a campaign, consistency trumps flash results. Liverpool look like genuine title contenders if they keep winning tight games and tidy up at the back, while Everton must maintain defensive health and convert draws into wins to move beyond mid-table security towards continental competition.
Final thought: derbies are often decided by fine margins — a moment of individual quality or a defensive slip. My predictions stand: Win for Liverpool, with both teams finding the net. Keep stakes sensible and enjoy the spectacle; this one will be mouth-watering for neutrals and nerve-jangling for fans.
Bio:
Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.
Key contributions:
Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me
Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:
“Risk wisely, gain greatly”
