Liverpool vs Leeds - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Anfield 01 January - 17:30

Liverpool

Leeds

Recommended tip Win for Leeds

1: 1.52 X: 4.33 2: 5.90

1: 1.55 X: 4.20 2: 5.50

1: 1.55 X: 4.50 2: 5.50

#AD, 18+ T&C apply!

There’s a proper New Year’s Day teatime cracker coming up as Liverpool host Leeds at Anfield. The Reds will be out to keep pressure on the top four while Leeds, scrapping and breathing down the relegation battle, look to nick vital points away from home. This fixture has a history of chaos, late goals and drama — perfect for anyone nursing a Boxing Day hangover and a flutter in hand.

Form, fitness and head-to-head bragging rights are the big talking points. Liverpool have enjoyed a swell of results but worryingly haven’t been running teams ragged by large margins recently. Leeds, meanwhile, flirt with inconsistency on the road but have shown they can rattle the big boys — remember that 3-3 earlier this season. With a little bit of banter and a lot of nuance, these are the kind of matches that make pundits squirm and punters salivate.

For anyone shopping around for markets or comparing the best lines, check out our best football betting sites for pointers on where value might hide. Whether you’re after outright Tips or little odds punts, this one demands a careful look at form and context rather than blind allegiance.

Odds and Predictions

The market has already set its stall out — the bookies fancy the hosts. Current pre-game odds read as follows: Home 8/15 (1.53) — 65.2% implied, Draw 17/5 (4.40) — 22.7%, Away 9/2 (5.50) — 18.2% (numbers sourced from Ladbrokes and subject to change). Those odds suggest Liverpool are expected to take the points, but that doesn’t tell the full story.

Odds are useful as a market temperature check: they measure money flows as much as form. Liverpool’s price reflects consistency and home advantage; Leeds’ longer price is a function of their struggles away. However, premium handicaps and Asian lines — Leeds +1.5 in particular — offer value for those who fear the Whites will be competitive even if they don’t get the three points.

In pure pundit-speak, my predictions sit somewhere between caution and contrarian. Expect a high-energy start from Leeds, who’ll look to press and unsettle. Liverpool should control possession and create chances; their finishing touch is the variable. If you like a straight result, the market leans to Liverpool. If you’re hunting Tips that squeeze extra value, Leeds on +1.5 is a neat play — the hot tip many markets are whispering about.

Comparison and Statistics

Recent H2H and head to head history gives us a classic mixed bag. Liverpool have won three of the last five meetings, but Leeds have shown they’re no pushovers — that 3-3 at Elland Road and the October 2022 win at Anfield remind us that the Whites can cause real problems.

Look at form tables and you’ll see Liverpool with more consistency in results, while Leeds have the teeth of a team capable of surprises. Defensive numbers tell a story: Liverpool have kept clean sheets but also conceded in several games, and both teams have seen both teams score often enough to keep the BT Sport scoreboard busy. Goals for and against suggest a tight, open contest rather than a one-sided stroll.

Momentum is an underrated stat here. Leeds have picked up points in pockets, and their away form is patchy but not beyond hope. Liverpool’s inability to win by big margins recently hints at a more grind-and-press approach under Arne Slot — that could play into Leeds’ hands if the visitors press high and look to force errors.

Expected Line-ups

Team sheets will influence everything. For the hosts expect Alisson between the sticks with a high defensive line marshalled by Van Dijk and Konate. The midfield should see Szoboszlai back from suspension — his return is a huge boost in creativity and set-piece threat. Wide options and rotation could see Frimpong or Kerkez involved as Slot juggles energy levels after a busy festive schedule.

Predicted Liverpool XI: Alisson (GK), Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez, Jones, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Wirtz, Ekitike

Leeds are likely to revert to a resilient, counter-ready shape. Expect Perri in goal with Struijk partnered by Bijol at the back; midfield will be built around Ampadu’s physicality and Stach’s engine. Attackers will need to be quick and direct — Calvert-Lewin’s aerial threat and Okafor’s movement are key if Leeds are to unsettle Liverpool on set plays and transitional moments.

Predicted Leeds XI: Perri (GK), Bogle, Struijk, Bijol, Gudmundsson, Ampadu, Stach, Tanaka, Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin, Okafor

Injuries and suspensions matter: Liverpool remain without Gomez, Endo, Giovanni Leoni and Isak, while Leeds could be without Joe Rodon, Sean Longstaff and Daniel James. Those absences influence tactical tweaks — expect both managers to be pragmatic rather than wildly adventurous.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This match is more than three points. For Liverpool it’s about keeping a toe-hold in the top four push and ensuring momentum into the winter fixtures. A slip here would hand a boost to the chasing pack and add pressure in an already congested schedule. For Leeds it’s a survival six-pointer in spirit; grinding out a point would feel like a win and could kickstart a sustained run to distance themselves from relegation threats.

Looking at the bigger picture, Liverpool have the squad depth to sustain a title push or at least a Champions League berth — the key will be consistency against lower and mid-table sides. Leeds, under Daniel Farke, have shown resilience and tactical nous; if they can shore up away fragility, they’ll be in with a shout to finish clear of the drop and perhaps gatecrash the middle table tussle.

Ultimately, this fixture might be a turning moment for either club’s season. A Liverpool win tightens their grip on the upper echelons, while a Leeds result would inject belief and could be the catalyst for survival. My honest verdict: it’s close, it’s spicy, and it’s a match where the market’s odds are sensible but you can find clever edges with handicaps and alternate lines.

Final score thoughts? I’m pencilling in a 2-1 to Liverpool in the notebook but would not dismiss a Leeds underdog story — which is why the hot tip of Leeds on +1.5 is attractive if you want insurance against a narrow Reds victory. For full slate previews and more predictions check back for our daily Tips and deep dives.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”