Crystal Palace vs Burnley - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Selhurst Park 11 February - 19:30

Crystal Palace

Burnley

Recommended tip Win for Crystal Palace

1: 1.51 X: 3.95 2: 6.40

1: 1.55 X: 4.00 2: 5.80

1: 1.53 X: 4.00 2: 6.50

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There’s a midweek swerve in store at Selhurst Park when Crystal Palace welcome Burnley on Wednesday night. It’s the sort of fixture that promises all the angst of a relegation scrap with the sort of low-key rancour you get when two struggling sides meet — and that’s exactly why punters and neutrals will be tuning in. This clash matters because Palace want to build on recent momentum while Burnley are fighting an alarming run without a win.

The form book is far from flattering for either team, which makes every set-piece, every early corner and every referee decision feel amplified. Palace have only one win in their last ten Premier League outings, while Burnley’s winless streak stretches worryingly long. There’s rivalry of a sort — history on Palace’s side in their head to head results — and that record will shape the narrative and the market.

If you’re after Tips and a straight-up view before you stake your cash, take a stroll through our analysis and odds, and don’t forget to have a look at the best football betting sites for a quick glance at where the value might be. The tone will be candid, a little cheeky, and properly analytical — the way a UK pundit likes it.

We’ll run through the pre-game numbers, the H2H trends, likely line-ups and what the result means for both clubs’ seasons. Expect predictions that lean on cold facts — recent results, clean sheet records and scoring patterns — but delivered with the confidence of someone who’s watched a few hundred games in all weathers.

Odds and Predictions

The bookies have oddsmakers tipping Palace as favourites. Current pre-game odds show a home win at 4/7 (1.57) with an implied 63.7% probability, a draw at 16/5 (4.2) and an away win at 9/2 (5.5). The way the market sits suggests bookmakers see this as a match to be controlled by Palace rather than one that will open up into a shootout.

Those numbers tell a story: Palace are expected to take the initiative and are priced accordingly. The market for first-half wins mirrors that sentiment — Palace have won the first half in four of their last five meetings with Burnley and are offered at around 23/20 (2.15) to do it again. When you see consistency like that in both the odds and the prior meetings, it’s hard not to take notice in your predictions.

There’s also a sensible low-risk corner and card narrative — Burnley’s last eight fixtures went below a 10.5-corner threshold, making under 10.5 corners an option that appeals at odds such as 4/7 (1.57). With both sides struggling for attacking fluency, markets that favour under outcomes look to carry value.

All told, the tips from a betting perspective point towards a controlled Palace win, perhaps a 2-0 correct score as the match preview suggests. That prediction is rooted in the clean-sheet trends, the H2H edge Palace possess and the odds that underline home advantage without promising a goal-fest.

Comparison and Statistics

Head-to-head (H2H) history is firmly on the Eagles’ side. Palace have won the last three meetings against Burnley and have not lost in the last five encounters. Importantly, Palace have kept clean sheets in their previous three matches with Burnley — a run that carries psychological weight as much as statistical advantage.

Looking at recent form, Palace sit 13th with 32 points from 25 matches and have struggled for consistency, picking up only one win in their last ten league games. Burnley’s form is bleaker; they have not won in their last 16 Premier League outings and have conceded first in four of their last five matches. That vulnerability to conceding early is central to both the odds and our match-level predictions.

The goalscoring and defensive metrics work in Palace’s favour. Burnley have not kept a clean sheet in their last eight matches and have failed to stop Palace across multiple recent meetings. Combine that with Palace’s recent ability to shut Burnley out, and the numbers nudge towards a low-scoring win for the home side rather than anything more chaotic.

For those who like the tactical minutiae, five of Palace’s last seven games went below a 4.5-card threshold, which suggests refereeing and discipline could keep the game tidy. Use these H2H and head to head threads to refine any multi bets or accumulators you’re considering.

Expected Line-ups

From the team news provided, Palace will be without a number of key players: Eddie Nketiah (thigh), Cheick Doucoure (knee), Jean-Philippe Mateta (knee), Rio Cardines and Caleb Kporha (back). Justin Devenny is doubtful with a foot issue, while Evann Guessand is pushing for a start after arriving on loan.

Predicted Palace starting XI: Henderson (GK), Lerma, Lacroix, Richards, Munoz, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell, Sarr, Pino & Larsen. The absence list means Palace may have to shuffle personnel and perhaps play a more cautious formation to shore up the defensive frailties highlighted earlier.

Burnley’s injury list is lengthy too: Mike Tresor (ankle), Zeki Amdouni (knee), Jordan Beyer (thigh), Connor Roberts (groin) and John Cullen (knee) are all out, while Axel Tuanzebe’s Achilles issue will be assessed. James Ward-Prowse could make his debut after a winter move, which might give Burnley a focal point in set-piece situations.

Predicted Burnley starting XI: Dubravka (GK), Walker, Humphreys, Esteve, Pires, Edwards, Mejbri, Luis, Ugochukwu, Anthony & Flemming. With several absentees, Burnley may set up to frustrate and sit compact, hoping to nick something on the break or from a dead-ball delivery.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This game should be viewed through the prism of survival and momentum. For Palace, a win would offer breathing room and the psychological boost of extending an unbeaten run in the H2H against Burnley. For Burnley, the season is beginning to feel precarious — long winless stretches and a defence leaking goals make their task uphill.

A victory for Palace fits into a narrative where they consolidate mid-table safety and push for a steadier second half of the season. For Burnley, failure to arrest this slide could turn the campaign into a relegation fight, with every point becoming precious from here on in.

So, how does this affect betting strategies? If you believe the odds and the H2H trends, backing Palace to win and perhaps taking the 2-0 correct score or a first-half Palace lead are logical plays. Conservative punters might prefer under 10.5 corners or a low-card market given recent trends.

In short: expect a tight, controlled game with Palace marginally favoured to take all three points. The markets agree, the H2H history backs them up, and the team news suggests Palace are less exposed at the back against a Burnley side who’ve found scoring and defending a problem all season.

For more on match previews, odds and longer-term tips, check the picks on our site at best football betting sites.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”