Sunderland vs Liverpool - Betting Tips & Predictions.

Stadium of Light 11 February - 20:15

Sunderland

Liverpool

Recommended tip Draw

1: 4.80 X: 3.70 2: 1.69

1: 4.40 X: 3.70 2: 1.73

1: 4.75 X: 3.80 2: 1.73

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Pull up a seat, strap in and get ready for a proper midweek cracker as Sunderland welcome Liverpool to the Stadium of Light. Two sides licking their wounds after Premier League defeats at the weekend meet with very different homework to do: Sunderland must protect their flawless home record in the top flight this season, while Liverpool need a response if they’re to keep any realistic hope of a top-four charge alive.

This fixture matters more than the midweek slot suggests. The Black Cats have been a fortress at home and will back themselves to frustrate the visitors, whereas Liverpool arrive with questions over form, selection and discipline. Expect sparks — and the kind of tactical chess that will have punters poring over the odds and the latest Tips before kickoff.

There’s also plenty of storyline fodder: recent form, injuries, and that long-standing rivalry in the head to head record that still gives Liverpool a historic edge. If you’re shopping around the bookies, take a quick detour to the football betting sites homepage for context, but read on for a full pundit-style breakdown and our predictions.

Odds and Predictions

Bookmakers make Liverpool the favourites to take all three points, and the pre-game numbers reflect that. The quoted market sits around 10/3 for a Sunderland win, 14/5 for a draw and roughly 3/4 for a Liverpool victory — the implied probabilities lean towards the visitors but they’re far from nailed on. Those odds tell you that while Liverpool are fancied, the bookmakers respect Sunderland’s home form.

From a punter’s perspective the value is in understanding the nuance — odds don’t just indicate who is stronger, they suggest where risk and reward meet. Betting markets are pricing Liverpool as the safer bet, but when a side hasn’t lost at home in the division all season you can’t dismiss the home factor. Our predictions favour a tight contest; this feels like a game to temper expectations of a Liverpool stroll.

For anyone after a bold tip, the sensible approach is to back Sunderland not to lose — a double-chance mindset. For those wanting a single-outcome punt, a draw looms large given both teams’ recent defensive records and the way Liverpool have struggled to turn pressure into consistent away returns. Remember, odds fluctuate, so shop around for the best prices before you stake.

Comparison and Statistics

Digging into the H2H and recent numbers gives us the real talking points. Liverpool still hold the historical advantage in head to head results, but recent meetings have been tight — their last clash in the top flight ended 1-1 at Anfield, and the Reds haven’t exactly run riot at the Stadium of Light in recent years.

Statistically, Sunderland have been a resolute outfit. Only five teams have conceded fewer Premier League goals than them this season, and their home form — seven wins and five draws from 12 — is the envy of the division. Liverpool, by contrast, have won just one of their last seven league games and their away points haul has been underwhelming relative to expectations.

Key numbers to note:

Sunderland: strongest unbeaten home run in the Premier League this season.
Liverpool: only one league win in seven, and 15 points from away fixtures so far.
H2H: Liverpool’s historical dominance softened by recent tight affairs; Sunderland are not pushovers.

These stats explain why our predictions are cautious — a narrow scoreline, possibly shared points, seems likeliest given the balance of defensive solidity against intermittent attacking fluency.

Expected Line-ups

Selection headaches and absences will shape the game. Sunderland are likely without Granit Xhaka and Bertrand Traore, both still working their way back. That hands the midfield reins to Habib Diarra and Noah Sadiki, who have done a tidy job in the pivot and will be asked to keep Liverpool’s creative players quiet.

Projected Sunderland XI: Roefs; Mukiele, Ballard, Alderete, Mandava; Sadiki, Diarra; Angulo, Le Fee, Talbi; Brobbey. This setup suggests a compact midfield, quick transitions and an emphasis on set-piece discipline.

Liverpool’s problems centre on discipline and missing pieces. Dominik Szoboszlai’s suspension after the red card to Manchester City opens the door for Wataru Endo or Curtis Jones to step in. With Conor Bradley and Jeremie Frimpong still out, expect a makeshift right side; Alexander Isak remains absent as he rebuilds, so Hugo Ekitike leads the line.

Projected Liverpool XI: Alisson; Jones (or Endo), Konaté, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Wirtz, Gakpo; Ekitike. Expect Liverpool to try and dominate possession but Sunderland to crowd the midfield and force turnovers.

How Will the Season Pan Out

This match has implications beyond the three points. For Sunderland, maintaining that unbeaten home streak keeps them firmly in the conversation for a top-half finish and even the odd European whisper if they can string consistent results together. Their defensive record suggests they can be a nuisance for any of the top sides.

Liverpool, meanwhile, have to arrest a concerning dip. Sitting outside the top four and six points adrift, the Reds can’t afford too many more stumbles if they want to salvage a Champions League spot. Results like this — tricky trips to organised sides — will be pivotal in judge Klopp’s (or current manager’s) mid-season adjustments.

Over the course of the campaign, both teams need different things: Sunderland need momentum and to avoid complacency at home, Liverpool need cohesion and fewer selection headaches. The likely outcome of this fixture — a tight draw — would suit neither side perfectly but would fit the narrative of two teams at a crossroads.

Final verdict: expect a tactical, low-margin affair. Our predictions and Tips lean towards a draw, with Sunderland on the double-chance if you prefer a safer play. This is the sort of match where small margins and a moment of individual quality could swing the balance — so back smart and enjoy the spectacle.

Written by:

Mark Brown

Chief Statistician

Bio:

Football bores me to tears! I’m not interested in the Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s of the world, but I am interested in betting. With that in mind, I spend hours trawling through the statistics of the football markets and can usually come up with an angle which presents a viable betting opportunity.

Key contributions:

Chief statistician or Stato, as my colleagues like to call me

Personnel betting philosophy or quotes:

“Risk wisely, gain greatly”